President Trump’s preferred oil price may be around $50 a barrel. But the war with Iran is getting him prices associated with recessions.
Brent crude approached $120 late Sunday, slipping back to around $100 Monday morning and then to around $90 late in the day after Trump reportedly told a reporter the war could end soon.
There is no exact number at which governments and consumers react to costlier oil. Between $110 and $120 a barrel is where demand for crude starts to erode, according to energy analysts. Though not cataclysmic, sustained prices at these levels will do damage.
The pace of increase also matters. Sudden shocks can trigger a more negative response from consumers than a gradual increase. “We started the year at $60 oil. Going to $90 or $100 in a very short period of time has a stronger psychological impact at the pump,” said Jim Burkhard, head of crude-oil market research at S&P Global Energy.
Globally, the risk of a stock-market correction increases when the oil price jumps at least 50% and these levels are sustained over a number of months, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
A hawkish reaction from central banks is another risk factor. And if an economy is already slowing, an oil-price shock can tip it into a downturn, as happened after the 1990 Gulf War.
True, the global economy needs around half as much crude as it did a few decades ago to generate $1,000 of economic activity. Cars are more efficient, alternative fuels are available and economies have shifted toward services, which aren’t as energy intensive as manufacturing.
But the U.S. economy is still more reliant on oil than others: U.S. oil intensity is twice as high as the European Union and 40% higher than China’s, according to Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at think tank Defense Priorities. This is largely because the U.S. doesn’t have much public transportation or electric-vehicle adoption.
That makes it harder for American consumers to shield themselves from rising gasoline prices. Prices at the pump are likely to go higher in the coming days, on top of their 50-cent climb since a week ago.
According to GasBuddy energy analyst Patrick De Haan, Americans are already spending $187 million more a day on gasoline than they were a week ago. There is an 80% chance that gasoline hits $4 a gallon this month, De Haan estimates.
The flip side of high prices is that the export revenue of major oil-producing economies whose supplies aren’t trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz will get a boost. This includes the U.S., Canada and Brazil among others. Russia is also getting a welcome breather after fresh U.S. sanctions hit its oil revenue.
America’s oil production has ballooned, so the economic lift from rising energy prices will be sizable. Since 2010, U.S. liquids production has increased by more than Saudi Arabia’s entire output. However, the sector’s windfall may not be enough to offset the drag on other parts of the economy.
Despite Europe’s lower oil intensity, its status as a big energy importer makes it vulnerable. The continent is now facing its second major energy shock in four years.
Governments in Asia are already moving to shield their consumers from inflation. China and Thailand have banned exports of refined oil products. But this will have a ripple effect on global prices for gasoline and diesel. Gains in wholesale diesel prices already outstrip moves in Brent crude.
Truckers, farmers and airlines may bear the brunt of the impact first. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is having a disproportionate impact on the prices of diesel and jet fuel because the Middle East is an important source of those fuels, said energy economist Philip Verleger. U.S. shale yields a lot of gasoline, but not as much diesel and jet fuel. Oil from Venezuela does produce a good amount of diesel, but it won’t be enough to offset the loss from the Middle East.
United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said rising fuel costs, airlines’ second-biggest expense after labor, will be passed on to passengers quickly.
History shows that energy-price shocks can also really hurt automakers. The auto industry experienced plunging sales during the oil-price shocks of 2008 and 1990.
The last time oil prices went above $100, the global economy weathered the shock. Brent crude futures reached a peak of about $128 a barrel in 2022, which equates to more than $140 a barrel in today’s dollars. In 2008, crude oil hit a high of around $145 a barrel, which in today’s dollars would equate to about $215 a barrel. Beyond a certain threshold, high prices can undermine themselves by causing demand destruction.
Verleger notes that the U.S. in 2022 had some cushion from stimulus checks, as well as lower interest rates. Today’s economy is more K-shaped, and that could “exacerbate the slowdown for the average American,” he said.
On Sunday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox that the surge in energy prices is temporary. Oil traders look increasingly skeptical: The oil-futures curve is starting to price in a longer disruption to supply than it was this time last week.
In just a week, the oil price has reached risky territory. The biggest question now is whether it stays there long enough to cause real damage.
Write to Carol Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com and Jinjoo Lee at jinjoo.lee@wsj.com
","readTimeMin":4,"provider":{"id":"AAynGx","name":"The Wall Street Journal","companyLegalName":"Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","logo":{"id":"AA1V258b","width":400,"height":400,"url":"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V258b.img","title":"","source":"msn"},"lightScalableVectorLogo":{"width":142,"height":12,"url":"https://cdn.query.prod.cms.msn.com/cms/api/amp/binary/AA13gD5m","title":"","source":"msn"},"darkScalableVectorLogo":{"width":142,"height":12,"url":"https://cdn.query.prod.cms.msn.com/cms/api/amp/binary/AA13gD5m-dark","title":"","source":"msn"},"subscriptionUrl":"","isPremium":true,"url":"http://online.wsj.com/","profileId":"vid-y572a3ryyddhuiujs0xe2j4m4b6c3n2fp5hnux4jpsdand8h09ys","comScoreStackedTags":{"ca1":"1","ca3":"13047035","ca2":"6035148","ca4":"MSNWSJ","ca6":"*null"},"fullSizeLogoPrimaryColor":"","fullSizeLogoSecondaryColor":"","lightSquareLogo":{"id":"AA1V1LDs","width":400,"height":400,"url":"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V1LDs.img","title":"","source":"msn"},"darkSquareLogo":{"id":"AA1V1SN1","width":400,"height":400,"url":"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V1SN1.img","title":"","source":"msn"},"lightFullLogo":{"id":"AA1V1Qpn","width":1366,"height":400,"url":"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V1Qpn.img","title":"","source":"msn"},"darkFullLogo":{"id":"AA1V1Qpo","width":1367,"height":396,"url":"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V1Qpo.img","title":"","source":"msn"}},"socialEmbeds":[],"seo":{"canonicalUrl":"https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-is-already-near-a-price-that-hurts-the-economy-3cebcfdc?mod=RSSMSN","canonicalAuthority":"provider","sharingAuthority":0,"disallowIndexing":false,"excludeFromSiteMap":false,"keywords":[]},"tags":[{"label":"Business","weight":0.9907906651496887,"feedId":"Y_367b7be1-6bd2-44e7-95b3-b0d077ccc28d","locale":"en-us"},{"label":"Money","weight":0.9907906651496887,"feedId":"Y_f714b6e2-e9db-41d0-9b5f-b2e0a52f85da","locale":"en-us"},{"label":"US","weight":0.6993799805641174,"feedId":"Y_a3b33cc2-2c47-48ba-a975-4b87b597644b","locale":"en-us"},{"label":"News","weight":0.6993799805641174,"feedId":"Y_9eb0ac10-32bc-43cf-816e-5beaaf524f7a","locale":"en-us"}],"facets":[{"key":"displayAds","values":["1"]}],"keywords":[],"contentQuality":{"result":2},"satoriTags":[{"label":"wf_topic_business","weight":98.0,"feedId":"5d5524a3-1f4e-4d0f-8242-b7daadefcad1"},{"label":"wf_topic_energy","weight":78.0,"feedId":"77282e0c-4eff-4c0e-8088-b26128b850d3"},{"label":"Stock","weight":8.0,"feedId":"458fb3ec-80f7-2a40-2f5e-ea0bf47fe7f6"},{"label":"Economy","weight":0.8300833333333334,"feedId":"5d0ec443-ef1e-6220-4d16-5c3597cf4f32"},{"label":"Iran","weight":0.17182099023484446,"feedId":"502b5268-992d-26c9-a0d8-6f206338406e"},{"label":"United States","weight":0.14414046976149572,"feedId":"5232ed96-85b1-2edb-12c6-63e6c597a1de"},{"label":"Donald Trump","weight":0.11251497185140279,"feedId":"1a466af2-ed23-25bd-794d-1ca925e4681b"},{"label":"Today (U.S. TV program)","weight":0.05,"feedId":"0cda4c14-dc45-ffcd-58b5-97ef884b77d2"},{"label":"Strait of Hormuz","weight":0.043291069767156035,"feedId":"67a3148d-aef6-73c4-ab3f-403ad6273336"},{"label":"Middle East","weight":0.03906822636366308,"feedId":"ba4dcd59-7aaf-ab51-0b2c-3186cc75acdc"},{"label":"GasBuddy.com","weight":0.03333333333333333,"feedId":"3b22c75d-dbb7-4dd3-5305-8bf27606eebd"},{"label":"Jet fuel","weight":0.03333333333333333,"feedId":"e8cdab22-ab8d-48ad-27d3-ce09f6fdf1ee"},{"label":"United States Secretary of Energy","weight":0.02389461108702212,"feedId":"ab1c05eb-9337-6f0c-5ffc-ec826aa6d8b1"}],"sourceId":"WP-WSJ-0003402854","feedId":"AA1vykdo","hasHeroImage":false,"subscriptionProductType":0,"intAttributes":{"hasSyndicationRights":1,"isBreaking":0,"isEmbedOnly":0,"renderingRestriction":0,"isExclusive":0,"isNoteworthy":0,"isVisible":0,"softDemotion":0,"galleryCount":0,"isProviderSubscribable":0,"hasHeroImage":0,"isContentFresh":0,"subscriptionProductType":0,"providerFlagAiExperiments":0,"videoYtChannelSubscriberCount":6570000,"newsClusterV5HPHash":1098928772,"newsClusterV6Hash":785064756,"newsClusterV7Hash":1631262972,"newsClusterV8Hash":-82290660},"displayAttributes":{"disableDefaultCopilotButtons":true},"stringSignals":{"feedId":"AA1vykdo","label":"markets","product":"finance"},"stringAttributes":{"providerTags":"","providerSummary":"{\"id\":\"AAynGx\",\"name\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"adNetworkId\":\"188286\",\"logo\":{\"width\":400,\"height\":400,\"url\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V258b.img\",\"source\":\"msn\"},\"mainLogo\":{\"id\":\"AA1V258b\",\"width\":400,\"height\":400,\"url\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V258b.img\",\"title\":\"\",\"source\":\"msn\"},\"lightScalableVectorLogo\":{\"width\":142,\"height\":12,\"url\":\"https://cdn.query.prod.cms.msn.com/cms/api/amp/binary/AA13gD5m\",\"title\":\"\",\"source\":\"msn\"},\"darkScalableVectorLogo\":{\"width\":142,\"height\":12,\"url\":\"https://cdn.query.prod.cms.msn.com/cms/api/amp/binary/AA13gD5m-dark\",\"title\":\"\",\"source\":\"msn\"},\"subscribable\":false,\"profileId\":\"vid-y572a3ryyddhuiujs0xe2j4m4b6c3n2fp5hnux4jpsdand8h09ys\",\"url\":\"http://online.wsj.com/\",\"largeFaviconUrl\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V1LDq.img\",\"flags\":{\"infinite_feed\":true,\"noarchive\":true,\"related_video\":true,\"interactive_ai_experiences\":false,\"copilot_daily\":false,\"ai_experiences\":false,\"ai_experiments\":false,\"commenting\":true}}","subType":"","variation":"","headlineAlternatives":"{\"originalHeadline\":{\"title\":\"Oil Is Already Near a Price That Hurts the Economy\",\"isValid\":true},\"gptvcdTitleQuality\":{\"title\":\"Oil is already near a price that hurts the economy\",\"isValid\":true}}","bingThumbnailWebP":"https://th.bing.com/th?id=OMSN.AA1XQbXZ.webp&pid=Wdpv2","bingThumbnailWebPWithROI":"https://th.bing.com/th?id=OMSN.AA1XQbXZ.webp&roil=0.103125&roit=0&roir=0.76953125&roib=1&pid=Wdpv2","tH_AR_1_91":"https://th.bing.com/th?id=OMSN.AA1XQbXZ.webp-2C&pid=Wdpv2","tH_AR_1_59":"https://th.bing.com/th?id=OMSN.AA1XQbXZ.webp-Gem&pid=Wdpv2","vertical_tera":"finance","subvertical_tera":"economy","terav4_t1_business_&_finance":"business_&_finance","terav4_t2_business_&_finance>commodities":"business_&_finance>commodities","terav4_t3_business_&_finance>commodities>oil_markets":"business_&_finance>commodities>oil_markets","terav4_t2_business_&_finance>economics":"business_&_finance>economics","terav4_t1_energy":"energy","terav4_t2_energy>energy_prices":"energy>energy_prices","terav4_t2_energy>oil_price_fluctuations":"energy>oil_price_fluctuations","terav4_t2_business_&_finance>international_oil_prices":"business_&_finance>international_oil_prices","cstarter_ld_latest00":"What strategies reduce economic harm from oil spikes?","cstarter_ld_latest01":"How do oil prices influence inflation rates?","cstarter_ld_latest02":"What sectors suffer most from high oil prices?","cstarter_ld_latest03":"How does rising oil price affect the economy?","cstarter_ld_latest04":"Why is oil nearing a critical price level?","cstarter_ld_latest05":"Which countries are most impacted by oil prices?","key_takeaways_latest":"**Oil Prices Near Risky Levels for the Economy** \n\n🛢️ **Rising Costs**: Brent crude neared **$120**, with sustained prices between **$110-$120** likely to **erode demand** and impact consumers psychologically. \n\n📉 **Economic Risks**: Sudden oil shocks can trigger **stock-market corrections**, hawkish central bank responses, and potentially tip slowing economies into a **downturn**. \n\n✈️ **Sector Impacts**: **Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices** rise first, affecting **truckers, farmers, airlines**, and potentially **automakers**, while oil-exporting countries gain revenue.","key_takeaways_short":"**Oil Prices Near Painful Levels for the Economy** \n\n🛢️ **Rising Costs**: Brent crude surged from $60 to around $90–$100, with $110–$120 per barrel starting to **erode demand** and risk economic slowdown. \n\n📉 **Economic Impact**: Sudden price jumps can trigger **stock-market corrections**, higher gasoline costs, and strain U.S. consumers due to high oil dependence. \n\n🌍 **Global Effects**: Oil-exporting countries gain revenue, while **Europe and Asia** face energy shocks; diesel and jet fuel prices rise, impacting **transportation and airlines**.","terav4_t3_business_&_finance>economics>us_economy":"business_&_finance>economics>us_economy","terav4_t2_business_&_finance>gasoline_prices":"business_&_finance>gasoline_prices","terav4_t3_energy>oil_price_fluctuations>geopolitical_influence_on_oil_supply_chains":"energy>oil_price_fluctuations>geopolitical_influence_on_oil_supply_chains","url_tera":"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/oil-is-already-near-a-price-that-hurts-the-economy/ar-AA1XQ4RU"},"numberDictionaryMap":{},"id":"AA1XQ4RU","name":"","source":"msn","type":"article","version":"7","createdBy":"micropublish","createdDateTime":"2026-03-09T16:05:43Z","updatedDateTime":"2026-03-09T20:22:33Z","publishedDateTime":"2026-03-09T20:13:00Z","locale":"en-us","categories":[{"product":"finance","label":"markets","source":"SelectionMLModel","score":0.9576088786125183,"locale":"en-us"}],"jsonDataMap":{"availableVariants":"[\"e2etest1\"]","displayType":"Card","displayValue":"{\"Type\":\"Card\",\"TypeExp\":null,\"Segment\":\"Blog\",\"Topic\":\"UnknownTopic\",\"InferredTopics\":[],\"ItemId\":\"AA1XQ4RU\",\"Title\":\"Oil is already near a price that hurts the economy\",\"ImageUrl\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1XQbXZ.img\",\"BingImageUrl\":\"https://th.bing.com/th?id=ORMS.e7444daa9a3c186727980bd48877c6d3&pid=Wdp\",\"HostIconUrl\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1V258b.img\",\"ImageProviderType\":null,\"ImageProviderName\":null,\"ArticleProviderType\":null,\"ArticleProviderName\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"Url\":\"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-is-already-near-a-price-that-hurts-the-economy/ar-AA1XQ4RU\",\"Snippet\":\"The U.S. economy remains more reliant on oil than others, making it harder for consumers to shield themselves from rising gasoline prices.\",\"CreatedOn\":\"2026-03-09T20:13:00Z\",\"CreatedOnUTC\":null,\"ExpirationDate\":\"\",\"ImageHeight\":855,\"ImageWidth\":1280,\"FocalRegion\":null,\"ImageUrlVNext\":\"https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1XQbXZ.img\",\"ImageHeightVNext\":0,\"ImageWidthVNext\":0,\"TypeVNext\":\"Card\",\"Market\":null,\"ImageCarousel\":[],\"ImageCarouselVNext\":[],\"ImageEncodingFormat\":null,\"ImageGoBigSignal\":null,\"Video\":null}","colorSampling":"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","isLocalNews":"0","financeMetadata":"eyJTdG9ja3MiOlt7IlN0b2NrSWQiOiJhdXZ3enIiLCJTY29yZSI6ODAwMDAwOTh9XSwiU2VudGltZW50UmF0aW5ncyI6W3siVG9waWMiOiJ3Zl9zZW50aW1lbnRfcG9zaXRpdmUiLCJTY29yZSI6MjQwfSx7IlRvcGljIjoid2Zfc2VudGltZW50X25lZ2F0aXZlIiwiU2NvcmUiOjk3NDB9LHsiVG9waWMiOiJ3Zl9zZW50aW1lbnRfbmV1dHJhbCIsIlNjb3JlIjoxOH1dLCJDYXRlZ29yaWVzIjpbeyJUb3BpYyI6Im1hcmtldHMiLCJTY29yZSI6MTAwMDB9XX0=","numberMap":"{}"},"scoredCategories":{"intlv3_oil_and_gas_industry":943,"intlv3_oil_and_fuel_prices":920,"intlv3_oil":884,"intlv3_the_economy_of_the_united_states_of_america":874,"intlv3_economics":764,"intlv3_international_economics":438,"intlv3_economics_of_everyday_life":367,"intlv3_politics_of_the_united_states_of_america":310,"intlv3_the_economy":247,"intlv3_donald_trump":135,"intlv3tier1_business":888,"intlv3tier1_politics":67,"intlv3tier1_news":43,"intlv3tier2_markets":648,"intlv3tier2_finance-news":138,"intlv3tier2_finance-video":170,"intlv3tier2_business-news":55,"intlv3tier2_north-america-news":27,"intlv3tier2_other-news":16,"intlv3tier2_latin-america-news":18,"intlv3tier2_personal-finance":14,"intlv3tier2_company-news":13,"intlv3tier2_in-depth":13,"terav2_oil_and_fuel_prices":999,"terav2_gas_prices":992,"terav2_oil":994,"terav2_crude_oil":993,"terav2_economics":994,"terav2_petroleum":975,"terav2_inflation":973,"terav2_cost_of_living":914,"terav2_oil_and_gas_industry":875,"terav2_commerce":810,"terav2_investors":852,"terav2_motor_fuel":790,"terav2_money":751,"terav2_fossil_fuels":727,"terav2_gasoline":685,"terav2_finance_news":710,"terav2_financial_markets":780,"terav2_oil_refineries":713,"terav2_economic_policy":717,"terav2_commodities":676,"terav2_global_economy":726,"terav2_us_economy":648,"terav2_energy_sector":703,"terav2_world":650,"terav2_investing___economy":631,"terav2_commodity_markets":637,"terav2_fuel_consumption":514,"terav2_shortages":560,"terav2_investing___business_news":574,"terav2_investing_news":534,"terav2_economic_inequality":571,"terav2_investing___market_news":589,"terat1_business_&_finance":751,"terat1_politics":636,"terat2_economics":989,"terat2_gasoline_prices":984,"terat2_commodities":793,"terat2_oil_and_gas_industry":740,"terat2_energy_infrastructure":728,"terat2_government":593,"terat2_power_and_energy_industry":577,"terat3_us_economy":697,"terat3_opec_(organization_of_petroleum_exporting_countries)":715,"terat3_united_states":693,"terat3_inflation":550,"terat3_fx_auvwzr":749,"intlv3_the_united_states_of_america":268,"intlv3tier2_news-video":17,"intlv3tier2_world":16},"_t":"ContentView","colorSamples":[{"isDarkMode":true,"hexColor":"#232C2A","isGreyScale":false},{"isDarkMode":false,"hexColor":"#D7DAD7","isGreyScale":false}]}